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Circuit City loses board member (and the patience of investors)

According to this Wall Street Journal (subscription required) piece, a member of the Circuit City Stores, Inc. (NYSE: CC) board has left the building. Lead outside director Mikael Salovaara resigned yesterday. Can you blame the guy?

No you can't. Circuit City doesn't have any sort of game plan at the moment, and it's sinking fast. The company's stock is priced at $2.31 as I write this. The goofy Blockbuster Inc. (NYSE: BBI) transaction is gone (for now, at least...there are reports saying that it could be resurrected at a later date, although I don't buy that it will happen at all). It isn't competing effectively against Best Buy Co., Inc. (NYSE: BBY) and Wal-Mart Stores, Inc. (NYSE: WMT). In short, Circuit City is a Titanic-like electronics retailer that doesn't know how to keep its ship from hitting icebergs.

So this resignation isn't surprising. Of course, is there any way to make money off the stock? I do believe there is downside to come on the share price, which would therefore imply that shorting it could work out. Alas, I wouldn't recommend it. You just know that some company and/or financial entity out there might come in at any point and make a bid, and the shares could skyrocket. Although the Blockbuster deal didn't make sense, it doesn't mean that there isn't some transaction scheme out there that would be logical. Circuit City is a stock merely to watch out of curiosity, it's not one to do anything about.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned here; positions can change at any time.

Why I spent some of my stimulus check on GE

I finally got around to investing a portion of my stimulus check. I had a few stocks in mind for the money, but at the end of the day, I decided that I should buy shares of a high-yielding blue chip for the very long term. It really wasn't a difficult decision. The winner of my stimulus-check buy was none other than General Electric (NYSE: GE).

I've been talking about GE a lot lately, but if you're an investor, you know there's a lot to talk about this conglomerate. No, I don't mean fundamentally, necessarily, I mean that its current yield is simply amazing. GE has dropped a lot this year, and it's gotten the attention of many value investors. In fact, I purchased some GE shares not too long ago when they were trading about six bucks higher than the current price for what I hoped would be a short-term trade. I admit it, I was wrong.

I still think my reasoning at the time was correct, and I continue to hold those shares, but I also hold a long-term position of GE that I add to several times a year with the intent of holding for the next couple decades, maybe even beyond that. It is this position that received the shares acquired through the beneficence of the government. Although some might argue that I should have improved the cost basis of my trade, I decided against such action, since I think GE might be down for a while. If I wanted to use the money for a trade, there are probably better ideas out there for it than GE. But long-term, GE's current 4.7% yield will probably turn into an effective yield of better than 20%, assuming the dividend continues to rise in the future as it has in the past (I believe it will).

The only other stock that provided real competition for my stimulus windfall is Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO). However, the GE yield was just too beautiful. Granted, Coke is obviously the more focused business, and its brand equity is impeccable. But a near 3% yield is no match for a 4.7% yield. I think I made the right decision, but time will tell. No matter what, though, anyone who buys GE now better be patient. Short-term traders might not be rewarded.

Disclosure: I own Coke and GE; positions can change at any time.

Come on -- Dow 10,000? Really?

For those of you who own blue-chip stocks, this is an eye-opening prediction. An article at CNBC.com talks about the possibility of Dow 10,000. Dow 10,000!

I repeated that in case you didn't get it the first time. It sounds pretty scary to me, and it should sound pretty scary to a lot of you out there. I'd have to presume that most investors don't use the stock market primarily as a substitute casino for the times when Las Vegas is out of reach. Many of you out there must own a Disney (NYSE: DIS) or a Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), maybe a General Electric (NYSE: GE) or a Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT), something generally considered core and safe for the long-term. I happen to own the first three. Anyone who does is in for some huge volatility if Dow 10,000 comes along.

Actually, whether it comes along or not, volatility is here to stay. And here's the thing about the Dow 10,000 prediction: it isn't so farfetched on a mathematical basis. When you first read that number, you say to yourself "No way, that would be like a depression!" But because the numbers are getting higher, the actual point moves aren't as dramatic as they may seem on the surface. If we hit 10,000, that would represent a decline of approximately 29% from the high reached back in October 2007. As I write this, the Dow is about 20% off the high. Is another 9% feasible?

Continue reading Come on -- Dow 10,000? Really?

Campbell Soup believes its stock is a good investment -- is it?

According to The Wall Street Journal, Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB) plans on executing a nice buyback program for its stock. The company will repurchase perhaps as much as 10% of its shares over time. Also, earnings will probably come in near the top point of the previously stated range. So, should you rush in and invest in Campbell just because of this buyback?

My opinion: Probably not if you're looking to merely trade the name, but if you're looking to hold for the long term, you'll probably be all right. Although Campbell Soup's stock isn't near a 52-week low as of this writing, I notice that Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO), PepsiCo (NYSE: PEP), and Kraft (NYSE: KFT) aren't too far from theirs. It's been a crazy time for the markets, and it amazes me that a stock like Coke isn't being perceived as a safe haven. I know there are some reasons out there for its weakness in terms of growth prospects and the like, but still, I've watched it drop quite a bit in very recent times (I own Coke), and I'm a bit surprised at its current price action considering the recession.

So, even though Campbell's buyback is great news for shareholders who already own the stock, I'm not sure I'd initiate a position myself. Although I am looking for stocks to buy, I just haven't been able to ignore the technical damage that's been inflicted upon the big averages by the bears and am reticent at putting new money to work in short-term trades. I think management might be doing the right thing with its buyback from a shareholder standpoint, but from a trading perspective, I would not be buying along with them.

Disclosure: I own Coke; positions can change at any time.

Google to use Seth MacFarlane content to sell ads

Seth MacFarlane is the genius behind News Corp.'s (NYSE: NWS) Family Guy animated television series. But why should News Corp. have all the fun programming cool content? That's apparently what Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) was thinking when it signed up Seth MacFarlane to produce a series of short animated clips for the Google Content Network.

According to The New York Times, MacFarlane has created something called Seth MacFarlane's Cavalcade of Cartoon Comedy. Little two-minute clips will be distributed to various websites that key in on the youthful male demographic which loves Family Guy. When users click on the clips, they will perhaps see an ad before the thing starts or some sort of banner attached to it. They might also simply see the name of the presenting sponsor before watching. Google will split monies generated by the ads with MacFarlane, the website that features the clip, and Media Rights Capital, the entity which sells the inventory.

I love the idea of the Google Content Network and I think that, over time, it should be a great success, but as with any novel platform, it all comes down to the word in the middle -- content. Google will live and die by the quality of the content because, although lesser-quality stuff might still find an audience in other mediums, the web has such intense competition for eyeballs that have minuscule attention spans. If the clips don't grab the viewer right away, then the ad inventory won't be as valuable to the buyers.

Continue reading Google to use Seth MacFarlane content to sell ads

H&R Block rocks expectations for its fourth quarter


H&R Block (NYSE: HRB), whose colleagues include Intuit (NASDAQ: INTU) and Jackson Hewitt (NYSE: JTX), reported Q4 and full-year earnings on Monday. The numbers looked pretty good to me. For Q4, revenues increased 11% to $2.6 billion and earnings per diluted share from continuing operations increased 17% to $2.11. According to this article, analysts' expectations were beat by $0.08. For the full year, the top line expanded by 10%, coming in at $4.4 billion. Earnings per diluted share from continuing operations jumped 21% to $1.39.

The tax specialist said it worked with 23.5 million clients, the most ever in its corporate history. That's a nice indication of health for the company, I suppose, but here's a better one. The board decided to juice the dividend. The annual payment will now be $0.60 per share, translating to a 5% increase. Okay, 5% isn't too exciting, I'll grant you, but H&R Block has now increased its payments to shareholders every year for over a decade.

But, as the company stated in its release, although it intends on repurchasing shares over the next few years, it will remain "particularly disciplined" about the subject in the next fiscal year. Essentially, that means shareholders should not expect a lot of share repurchases for a while. H&R Block is reacting to the fact that it is still rebooting itself after being victimized by the subprime mortgage crisis. I'd rather hear a more aggressive stance in terms of buyback plans, but I'd say there is prudent motive in such posture given the company's state.

Continue reading H&R Block rocks expectations for its fourth quarter

Disney's "Wall-E" beats my expectations

I didn't think Disney's (NYSE: DIS) Wall-E movie would do as well as it did over the weekend. I thought $60 million was too much to hope for (see my previous piece on the subject). I was wrong. According to Boxofficemojo, the Pixar picture pulled in more than $62 million at domestic theaters and came out on top.

Assuming the film continues to do well in upcoming weekends, Wall-E should provide a nice counterbalance to the relative disappointment of Disney's Prince Caspian project that was released in May. While Wall-E won't move Disney's stock all by itself, the movie and its characters should help drive the studio segment in future quarters, as well as provide some opportunities for promotions and initiatives in other parts of the company, such as the theme parks.

Wanted, distributed by General Electric's (NYSE: GE) Universal, debuted in second place with a haul of more than $50 million. The movie, starring Angelina Jolie, had some snazzy, Matrix-like commercials powering its appeal. I can see why the numbers were big on this one. Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) and Get Smart didn't stand a chance against Wanted. It dropped two spots to third place with a tally of $20 million. And, no, I still don't find Steve Carell funny.

Continue reading Disney's "Wall-E" beats my expectations

Will the changes at Yahoo! be enough?

I read an article over the weekend about Yahoo! Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) and its reorganization attempts. Make no mistake about it, this company needs to alter its DNA if it intends to survive in a world without a Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) taking it over.

In a nutshell, it looks like Yahoo! wants to retool its divisions so that it can more efficiently react to changes in the online marketplace. Yahoo! apparently feels that its current organizational structure inhibits growth and is looking to create new teams dedicated to developing products that will capture eyeballs and advertising opportunities as quickly as possible. The company also wants to focus on cloud computing, a technology that is important to the business sector.

Well, from the point of view of an investor looking at Yahoo!, I don't see anything here that persuades me to buy the stock. Synthesizing a new plan of corporate attack is pretty much par for the course for any company that is doing terribly and is looking to get back on the good side of Wall Street. But is there anything really exciting in the plan? No. It's just Yahoo! doing something. There's nothing too revolutionary going on. Centralizing this and that might add value. It also might not. It's all in the execution, and I'm not sure I want to trust a company that rebuffed Microsoft's reasonable buyout offer to execute anything at this point.

Continue reading Will the changes at Yahoo! be enough?

So, you want to short the market? Be careful

With the market looking just plain awful these days, and with the theory of recession becoming more and more concrete as the dour days pass, the concept of shorting equities is gaining popularity, at least from a headline point of view. Here's an article that talks about utilizing ETFs to go short. My colleague Timothy Sykes also discussed shorting in a recent piece of his own. Both of these articles bring up excellent points, and like Tim, I don't feel there is anything unpatriotic about betting against stocks, whether they are rising or falling. We're a capitalist society, and the trading spoils should go to the winners, whether the winners be long or short.

However, I urge all individual investors out there to think before they short. Don't take betting against a company or a market average lightly. The problem with shorting now is that it might be too late. The time to have purchased, say, the Proshares Ultrashort Dow 30 (AMEX: DXD) might have been a week ago. Remember that shorting is not a long-term idea, no pun intended. Going long is, so you're essentially going to become a market-timer when you invest in a short fund. There is nothing inherently wrong about trying to hedge yourself in a downward-spiraling environment, but make sure you understand that you are making a guess about the direction of stock prices. That's a tricky endeavor at best.

One thing you must avoid doing is shorting individual stocks. I think it's safer to short averages than it is to short companies. Again, if you're really sophisticated, you can do what you want, but do you have the guts to short a General Electric (NYSE: GE) or a Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO)? Or what about a Newcastle Investment (NYSE: NCT)? A Citigroup (NYSE: C)? These are all stocks that I believe may be going lower in the short-term, but they all pay dividends, which the short-seller is still responsible for. Plus, at some point, the dividend yields will signal to investors that a bottom could be in. Besides, with short-themed ETFs around, there's really no reason to literally borrow shares and sell them into the market. There's also the method of buying put options to take advantage of a downtrending equity, so you're covered by that technique, too.

Continue reading So, you want to short the market? Be careful

Rite-Aid's Q1 earnings spark sell-off that is no buying opportunity

Rite-Aid (NYSE: RAD), a competitor of CVS (NYSE: CVS) and Walgreen (NYSE: WAG), tanked Thursday. By the end of the trading session, the pharmacy's stock declined almost 23% on heavy volume. Yes, it was a horrible day in the market overall, but don't blame the market at large. Rite-Aid is simply a company to avoid, and its latest earnings data show why.

According to the AP, Rite-Aid booked a loss of $0.20 per share for its fiscal first quarter versus a profit of $0.04 per share in the year-ago period. There are some growing pains going on here, since Rite-Aid is attempting to integrate its purchase of Brooks Eckerd. That acquisition propelled the company to top-line revenue growth of 48%. Unfortunately, analysts were looking for the company to lose only $0.09 per share. The significant differential made investors feel justified in punishing the stock. Heck, I'll bless the sell-off myself.

It'll be a long time before Rite-Aid finally turns its ship around. The next fiscal year will bring more losses, and with strong competition out there from CVS and Walgreen, the road ahead for management won't be for the faint of heart. This is truly a speculator's stock. I took a look at a post I wrote on Rite-Aid back near the beginning of April. At that time, the stock was priced at about $2.89 per share. As of Thursday's close, the shares were trading for $1.35. The Rite-Aid story belongs in the horror genre, and its stock is best left to those professionals who don't mind losing money. Individual investors? This company isn't for you, in my opinion.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

Will Disney score this weekend with 'Wall-E'?

Walt Disney (NYSE: DIS) has an interesting weekend coming up. The new Pixar film, Wall-E, opened today. While everyone expects it to be a hit, no one knows yet how big a hit it will ultimately be.

Pixar, of course, is a major brand in computer-generated cartoons. Its major competition is DreamWorks Animation (NYSE: DWA). The latter's most recent hit, Kung Fu Panda, opened earlier this summer box-office season with a $60.2 million first-weekend take, according to Boxofficemojo. Last year, Ratatouille debuted with a first-weekend take of $47 million. In my mind, for Wall-E to please shareholders and show Disney that its Pixar brand is a reliable money machine, the animated feature needs to do at least $60 million. It can't do anywhere near the Ratatouille flick since that was an example of weak opening performance, in my opinion.

I read a great review on Wall-E at the Hollywood Reporter. The author heaps praises on the film and says that Pixar's streak of success is intact. That's pretty pleasing. Yet, the review also worries me to some extent (I'm a Disney shareholder). The author says that there isn't a lot of dialogue in the picture (I guess the robot characters don't speak) and that it might be such a smart project that some moviegoers might not fully appreciate it. In this competitive timeframe, that doesn't make me feel good. I'd rather the film be simple blockbuster material for the popcorn crowd. I don't want the young kids in the audience to feel their attention spans being strained in the least. I'm not looking for art in this case. I just want my company to make as much money as possible.

Continue reading Will Disney score this weekend with 'Wall-E'?

Bed Bath & Beyond doesn't make my investment list

Bed Bath & Beyond (NASDAQ: BBBY) reported Q1 earnings on Wednesday, and Trey Thoelcke highlighted the numbers in this earnings-recap piece. Shares rose substantially in the after-hours trading session yesterday, jumping over 8%, and as I reviewed various earnings reports last night, I found myself drawn to the retailer's stock performance. I haven't been a huge fan of Bed Bath & Beyond as of late, so I figured I should take a look at the earnings release to see if there's anything here that would change my opinion.

Unfortunately, there isn't. Sales may have grown 6%, and expectations may have been beaten by $0.03, but net income still dropped over 20% to $0.30 per diluted share. Cash flow from operations declined 44% to $65.8 million. And same-store sales were very anemic, rising only 0.8%.

I choose, in this case, to focus on those figures. I also consider the fact that Bed Bath & Beyond does not pay a dividend, and that we are in an awful economic environment, both from a consumer and stock-market standpoint. This is not the stock I'd want to face the recession with, and I don't necessarily find it to be a big value right now. When it comes to retail, I am more likely to look at Wal-Mart (NYSE: WMT) and Target (NYSE: TGT). I'd even consider a Home Depot (NYSE: HD) or a Lowe's (NYSE: LOW). All of these stocks pay dividends and have better brand equities and more attractive prospects. Bed Bath & Beyond certainly didn't deliver an earnings bomb, but I'm still not inclined to put money here.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned; positions can change at any time.

Should your portfolio walk in Nike's shoes?

According to Trey Thoelcke's coverage on earnings reports, Nike (NYSE: NKE), a competitor of Adidas (OTC: ADDDY), beat Wall Street expectations for its Q4 results. Analysts thought that Nike might be good for earnings of $0.96 per share, but the footwear entity booked $0.98 per share, beating estimates by two cents (thankfully, it wasn't the proverbial penny, which definitely gets boring after awhile). Investors didn't seem to be too keen on the results, as the stock sold off in after-hours trading on Wednesday, dropping almost 5%.

Let's take a closer look at the results. For the fourth quarter, the top line increased by 16% - not a bad revenue jump. And that $0.98 earnings per-share figure represented an increase of 14%. The fiscal year actually looked pretty good, too. Revenues increased 14%, and net income expanded by 28% to $3.74 per share. Gross margin expanded, and worldwide futures orders were up 11%. I like all these double-digit numbers, and I like the fact that the company paid out more in dividends this year than last, and I can see that Nike is taking advantage of the weak dollar through its international exposure.

Nike's stock has performed well, over the last five years, but lately it's not been as strong. Investors would certainly be justified in having a cautious stance with a company like Nike considering the current economic climate. Sneakers obviously might not be worth a lot of discretionary income in a time of high energy costs and slow growth. But with numbers like these, I have to say that Nike knows how to leverage its brand equity to full effect. This was a great yearly report, and if the stock pulled back a little further, I would definitely consider it.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned here; positions can change at any time.

Even Toyota (TM) is going to struggle

Well, I can't predict when the market will turn, or when Toyota's (NYSE: TM) stock will once again be in favor, but I can tell you that I won't be buying its shares here. According to this article, Toyota may not do as well as it planned in terms of sales in 2008 in the U.S. market. The company told investors that year-over-year growth in the number of cars sold is now in question. In 2007, Toyota moved 2.62 million automobiles in the U.S., and for 2008, Toyota wanted to sell 2.64 million cars.

I probably don't need to say it, but I will: considering the negative trends in oil futures, gas prices, consumer confidence, inflation, recession potential, and the housing industry, the fact that the stocks of Toyota, General Motors (NYSE: GM), and Ford (NYSE: F) are having a really tough time right now is not surprising. Toyota's stock closed down 2% on the news of the sales struggle at the end of Tuesday's trading session. That's not a particularly horrible downward move, and the stock is still a few bucks above its 52-week low, but I think there's a chance the stock will take out that low at some point.

Investing in the auto industry might be a dicey move here. Sure, you could pick up some bounces, but being early in this space could prove depressing for even the heartiest investor. Auto sales might get worse before they get better (they're pretty bad now as it is), so I'll stay away from Toyota and this sector.

Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned here; positions can change at any time.

Sony and the debacle known as PlayStation 3

Man, it stinks to be Sony (NYSE: SNE). According to Forbes, the media company has lost $3.3 billion on its PlayStation 3 console so far. Wow. When the mighty fall, they fall hard. The PlayStation 3 is a heck of a powerful system, but the Nintendo (OTC: NTDOY) Wii has captivated players not only with its innovative nature, but with its affordable price. Right from the start, Nintendo decided to go with less costly components so that each console sold would generate a profit. Its retail price of $250 is a lot better than $500 to a consumer's wallet, especially when a cheaper system is also a lot of fun.

And talk about a hit to PlayStation's brand equity. Here's what most people think about the third PlayStation (from my experience at least): it doesn't have a lot of games available, there aren't many kid-friendly titles offered, I don't want to pay that much for a PlayStation system so I'll just wait for further price cuts. Boy, imagine if Sony has to cut the price even further. Sony already loses a bundle on each system.

Not only is Nintendo hurting Sony, but Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and its Xbox 360 is also out there causing damage. You can pick up a low-end version of the Xbox 360 without a hard drive for around $280. Too bad Sony decided to incorporate Blu-ray and hard drives into its business model for the PlayStation 3. Admittedly, I thought it was the right thing to do at the time as well, but I guess Sony and I have been proven wrong.

Continue reading Sony and the debacle known as PlayStation 3

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Last updated: July 03, 2008: 07:06 PM

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